AGP Executive Report

Oil Market Mood: Brent slipped to $70.88/bbl and WTI to $67.87 after US-Iran talks eased supply worries, while Azerbaijan’s Azeri Light fell to $72.46. Middle East Shipping Tensions: Iran warned all tankers through the Strait of Hormuz must use approved routes or face a “forceful response,” keeping traders on edge. Russia-Ukraine Energy Pressure: Ukraine struck Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod refinery and a pumping station, while Russian drones hit enterprises and a gas station in Ukraine’s Chernihiv region. Armenia-EU Connectivity: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan pushed for expanded power links with Türkiye and Azerbaijan and interest in a Black Sea submarine cable. Grid & Storage Moves: Maharashtra’s MSEDCL floated a tender for 2,000 MW/4,000 MWh BESS with VGF support. Nuclear Policy Watch: Philippines’ DOE said it has assessed nuclear sites but no proposals yet, and is also planning an oil reserve storage.

Oil Market: OPEC+ is “likely” to lift August output targets by about 188,000 bpd, even as prices stay pressured by easing Strait of Hormuz risks and higher non-Middle East supply. Ukraine-Russia Energy War: Ukraine says it hit Russia’s Ufa oil refinery again, adding to a fuel crunch as drone attacks continue across Russian regions. AI & Power Demand: Siemens warns AI and data centers could double electricity use by 2030, with cooling alone taking 30%-40% of data center energy. Grid & Heat Relief: Utilities and regulators push summer bill-savers and assistance programs, including TXU’s Energy Aid in Texas and Consumers Energy tips in Michigan as heat drives demand. Gas Prices Watch: GasBuddy forecasts a July 4 national average around $3.75, while AAA expects weekend price bumps from higher travel demand. Policy & Legal: New York’s gas hookup ban for new buildings cleared another court hurdle, and California drivers filed a class action alleging AI fuel-pricing tools helped keep pump prices high. Renewables Milestone: Adani Green Energy passed 20 GW of operational renewables capacity in India, accelerating greenfield additions. Infrastructure Disruptions: Great Lakes Energy reported 13,000+ customers without power after severe storms in Michigan.

Middle East Oil Flows: Iran says it has exported 40+ million barrels since the U.S. lifted its port blockade, selling at about 20% higher prices, while indirect U.S.-Iran talks continue in Qatar. Ukraine Energy Attacks: Zelenskyy confirms a second strike on Russia’s Ufa oil refinery in a week, adding to fuel disruption pressures. Gulf Export Surge: The UAE hit a June record with 3.7 million bpd of oil exports, using routes that bypass or evade Strait of Hormuz risks. Grid & Renewables Buildout (India): ACME commissioned a 240.72 MWh battery storage project in Rajasthan; BluPine signed a 150 MW assured-peak renewable PPA with SJVN; Adani Green cleared 20 GW operational renewables milestone. Offshore Wind (Poland): Føn Energy won a long-term O&M contract for Baltic Power subsea assets. Energy Prices & Policy (US/Canada/Pakistan): California’s gas tax rises and other new laws take effect; B.C. inflation edges up as energy costs climb; Pakistan’s June inflation eases to 11.1% on lower energy and food prices. Energy Security & Digitalization (Oman): Oman launched a digital supply-chain initiative for the energy sector to improve procurement and contract management.

Energy Efficiency Push: Governments meeting at the IEA’s Global Conference on Energy Efficiency in Montreal pledged stronger efficiency action to cut costs, boost energy security, and protect vulnerable households and data centres. US Fuel-Price Relief vs Taxes: GasBuddy says gasoline and diesel prices fell heading into July 4 travel, but California’s gas tax rises July 1 and stays nation-leading. California Algorithm Lawsuit: Walmart and Albertsons are sued in federal court over claims they used AI pricing tools to keep California fuel prices artificially high. US Data Centre Politics: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told critics to engage constructively, amid polling showing many Americans oppose nearby data centres over power costs and impacts. Hydrogen Policy in California & Virginia: California signed SB 1350 to let renewable-made green hydrogen support gas plants; Virginia signed a package including steps to rejoin RGGI and protect ratepayers. Oil Market Slide: WTI fell below $70 as Hormuz flows and US-Iran talks eased supply fears, though risks remain. Cyprus Offshore Gas: QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil advanced Cyprus offshore gas development with commercial declarations for Block 10. Nepal Fuel Cuts: Nepal Oil Corporation cut petrol, diesel, and LPG prices, citing lower international product costs. Flaring Warning: World Bank data shows global gas flaring rose again in 2025, underscoring wasted gas and emissions.

Wind Power Deal: Suzlon landed its first commercial order for the newly launched 5 MW S175 turbine, with Sunsure Energy placing a 105 MW order in Karnataka—21 turbines to be supplied, erected, commissioned and maintained, marking a major step in Suzlon’s scaling push. EVs for Fleets: EMO Energy and Revamp Moto plan to deploy 5,000 low-speed electric two-wheelers in India, starting with 1,000 scooters, using liquid-cooled AI-managed batteries and a fast-charging ecosystem aimed at boosting delivery uptime. Grid + AI Reality Check: A new take on the AI boom says the real bottleneck is getting electricity to data centers on schedule, with grid queues and financing uncertainty now shaping where AI can actually roll out. Gas Price Watch (Bulgaria): Bulgaria’s regulator set July natural gas at €37.70/MWh, citing competitive levels versus international benchmarks and supply mix including Azerbaijani gas and LNG. Oil Market Mood: With Strait of Hormuz worries easing, analysts cut 2026 oil forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, while oil heads toward its biggest quarterly drop since 2020. EU Russian Gas Politics: The European Commission said restarting Russian pipeline gas isn’t possible under current EU law, after German far-right calls to reverse the phase-out. Energy Bills Pressure (UK): The UK’s Ofgem price cap rises to £1,862/year from July 1, and experts warn relief may be limited even if wholesale markets stabilize. Cyprus Gas Progress: ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy say Cyprus natural gas could start flowing by 2033, with negotiations on commercial terms described as advanced. Infrastructure Oversight Risk (US): A DOI review push could put about $121B of solar and wind projects at permitting risk, with wind facing the biggest proportional exposure.

Middle East Ceasefire Watch: The US and Iran agreed to halt recent strikes and return to talks in Doha, with negotiators expected to focus on keeping the truce and securing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz—an area still shaping oil prices and shipping risk. Oil Market Mood: Oil hovered near pre-war levels as diplomacy improved sentiment, but analysts warned logistics and insurance frictions mean flows may not fully normalize fast. US Nuclear Push: The US DOE is offering $17.5B in conditional loans to help fund long-lead components for new large commercial nuclear reactors, aiming to revive domestic supply chains. California Consumer Protection: California lawmakers advanced a bill to expand wartime price-gouging authority, after critics said existing rules don’t clearly cover armed conflict-driven fuel spikes. Clean Hydrogen in California: The state legislature approved SB 1350 to let renewable green hydrogen be used at natural-gas power plants during transitions—positioning it as a potential first-of-its-kind national model. Grid Reliability & Heat: Utilities and co-ops in Minnesota and elsewhere issued peak energy alerts, urging customers to cut usage during high-demand hours. Data Center Power & Emissions: Regulators are drafting air permits for Amazon’s $10B Energy Way Tech Campus in North Carolina, where large diesel backup generation raises major pollution concerns. Gas Prices at the Pump: In Mississippi, AAA reported falling gasoline prices ahead of the Fourth of July, tied to crude easing. Hydrogen Deal: UK firm Hy-Hybrid Energy signed a strategic partnership with China’s Hyvoda to develop methanol hydrogen generators and electrolyser systems for the UK/EU.

Middle East Oil Calm: U.S.-Iran agreed to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, easing crude fears and helping markets rebound; oil benchmarks cooled after earlier spikes. Energy Storage Push (EU): The EU signed off on a tripartite energy storage deal, targeting at least 20% more deployment vs 2025 and aiming for about 45 GW by 2028. Battery Deals (Africa/Europe): Envision Energy will supply a 660MWh BESS for South Africa’s Naos-1 hybrid renewables project, while Elements Green and Envision partnered on a 1,600MWh Stadorf BESS in Germany. Grid Oversight (Philippines): The Philippines DOE plans show-cause orders for 164 on-grid generation firms over forced outages or derating during critical alerts. Household Bill Relief (Canada): Canada expanded its Greener Homes Affordability retrofit program to Quebec, BC, Nova Scotia and PEI. Policy & Prices (US/UK): California’s gas excise tax rises July 1; Georgia pump prices fell to $3.58. Nuclear Economics (Switzerland): A Swiss study says new nuclear plants are viable only with state support and lower construction costs. Sanctions Enforcement (UK): HMRC named a UK firm over Russia sanctions breaches, levying a £569k settlement.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil prices edged up as US and Iran traded strikes, keeping Strait of Hormuz shipping risk in focus. UK Household Bills: Ofgem’s price cap rises 13% from July 1, adding about £221 a year for typical dual-fuel homes, though analysts expect steadier levels later. Russia-Ukraine Energy War: Putin said Ukrainian attacks are causing “certain” fuel shortages while Ukraine’s drones set a Russian refinery ablaze. Investor Pivot to Energy: A survey of sovereign wealth funds and central banks managing $29T finds growing demand for energy security and transition infrastructure, with concerns about the dollar. Grid & Gas Politics: Pakistan is weighing discounted Iranian oil and gas imports after easing US sanctions, while Nigeria’s regulators warn fuel marketers against exploiting consumers despite crude drops. Power Market Moves: Philippines retailer Rockport Power expands partnerships to help large users access cheaper, more competitive electricity under open-access rules. Local Disruption: Ogun State in Nigeria will reopen affected schools after safety reviews tied to recurring gas emissions in Ijebu-Ode.

Ukraine-Russia Energy War: Zelensky says long-range drones hit two Russian oil refineries, including Slavyansk in Krasnodar and a Yaroslavl-area refinery, aiming to cut fuel for Russia’s war effort. Heatwave Stress Test: A severe Europe heatwave is straining power systems, with nuclear cooling limits forcing output cuts and grid operators spending to secure extra electricity. Oman Gas Market: Integrated Gas Company signed new Oman Spot Gas Market agreements to improve short-term supply allocation and support power generation and GCC electricity exports. South Africa Storage Push: Envision Energy agreed to supply a 660MWh battery storage system for the Naos-1 solar-plus-storage project, targeting more dispatchable clean power. EU Trade Snapshot: Eurostat shows EU petroleum imports steady in Q1 2026 while LNG volumes rose, keeping the supply picture relatively stable. India Fuel Security Debate: Reporting highlights how state-run oil firms kept supplies moving through floods and crises, despite ongoing privatisation pressure. Pakistan-Iran Energy Ties: Pakistan Business Forum urges turning improved regional diplomacy into bigger trade and energy connectivity with Iran. US Pricing Lawsuit: A California federal suit alleges gas-price software helped coordinate higher retail prices, raising antitrust concerns. Pakistan Gas Incident: A buried pipeline fire in Chattogram, Bangladesh, sparked panic as firefighters brought it under control; investigations are underway.

Middle East Tensions & Oil Prices: U.S. strikes on Iran followed a drone hit on an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, keeping shipping and crude markets jittery even as oil slid toward about $70/bbl on easing supply fears. Europe Markets: European stocks closed lower as oil prices fell, with Brent and WTI both down sharply. Pakistan Fuel Policy: Pakistan will keep petrol and diesel prices unchanged for the week starting June 27, despite global crude returning to pre-conflict levels; industry groups warn repeated formula changes are damaging refinery and OMC planning. Grid & Storage Push: Google-backed Energy Dome is moving ahead with a long-duration CO2 battery project in Ireland (Offaly), aiming to stabilize the grid as wind and solar dip. Energy Infrastructure Under Fire: Ukraine says it struck Russia’s Vtorovo oil pumping station again, while Russia targets Ukraine’s energy and fuel sites, raising near-term fuel-supply strain. Gas Prices at Home: Australia’s analysis says the order of upgrades matters—efficiency first, then electrify gas appliances, then add solar—while U.S. consumers watch local pump prices drift down. Clean Energy Trade War: China’s clean energy exports keep surging, helped by its dominant supply chains for solar, batteries, and storage. Local Power Projects: Kershaw County advanced incentives for a $900M gas plant near Bethune as neighbors demand answers.

Strait of Hormuz Shockwave: A projectile hit the bridge of a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with UKMTO saying the crew is safe and no environmental damage reported, as US-Iran tensions keep markets on edge. Oil Market Pivot: With shipping traffic resuming, oil benchmarks slid back toward pre-war levels; Brent and WTI both dropped sharply after the reopening, and traders are now pricing a near-term supply glut as more tankers leave the Gulf. EU Sanctions Push: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania urged the EU to speed up a full ban on Russian oil imports, arguing the remaining Russian volumes still fund the war. Middle East Supply Plans: Iraq aims to lift crude output to 7 million bpd in three years, while Kurdistan connected a new Khor Mor gas pipeline to the Al-Sulaymaniyah power station to boost electricity. Energy Security Under Fire: Russia launched fresh missile and drone attacks targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, damaging production facilities. Affordability Politics: In India, opposition leaders questioned why fuel prices haven’t fallen as global crude slid; in the US, gas prices continued easing ahead of July 4 travel. Clean Power Buildout: Colorado’s State Land Board partnered on community solar to power state offices, and Bulgaria discussed restoring full nuclear research membership after funding gaps.

Battery Storage Push: Energo-Pro commissioned its first Bulgaria BESS in Gorna Oryahovitsa (10.75 MW/24.31 MWh), a €4.23m project aimed at balancing the grid and improving reliability. Grid & Policy Moves: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker signed a clean-energy “trailer bill” to fix implementation details for its Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act, while Skagit County approved a grant-backed contract to draft clean-energy regulations and a programmatic environmental review. Nuclear Debate: A New York senator is backing a nuclear plant site for his district, arguing it fits local “site readiness” and economic goals. Oil & Gas Politics: The U.S. Interior Department proposed cutting red tape for federal oil, gas and coal valuation under “American Energy Dominance.” Middle East Shock Eases: Oil slid as Strait of Hormuz flows recovered, helping gas prices fall in places like Baltimore and Whatcom County, and lifting U.S. consumer sentiment after months of sour outlook. Local Friction & Safety: Erie, Colorado reversed course to approve a mineral rights deal tied to the Draco Well Pad; Summit County cities paused directional drilling after a gas explosion; and Baltimore reported an oil spill into the Inner Harbor.

Middle East Shipping Shock: Iran fired on a commercial cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh risks for global oil flows just as shipping had been resuming. Oil Prices: Singapore reported Brent down nearly 2% to about $73.76/bbl and WTI down about 2% to $70.43/bbl as supply-disruption fears eased. US Energy Politics: Trump renewed a DOJ probe into Big Oil over pump prices, even as crude falls. Renewables Tax Rush: US solar developers are rushing to lock in expiring federal clean-energy tax credits, warning of higher wind/solar contract prices. Nuclear Momentum: Sweden moved ahead with a state-backed plan to build new nuclear at Ringhals, while Africa-focused experts argued nuclear cooperation is key for industrialization. Grid & Storage Buildout: India’s LPG commercial supply restrictions were lifted after Hormuz improvements; Colombo received more BESS units for peak-hour grid support; and Hitachi Energy won a major HVDC interconnector contract for Italy–Tunisia. Corporate Clean Power: South Africa’s Tiger Brands signed a renewable wheeling deal to cut emissions and reduce Eskom-linked electricity. Policy Pressure in Europe: Portugal activated an EU budget safeguard clause to cover extra energy crisis costs.

U.S. Nuclear Push: The U.S. Energy Department is offering up to $17.5B in loans to speed new nuclear plants, targeting 10 reactors at five sites and aiming to cut deployment risk. Middle East Oil Shock Watch: Oil jumped after a cargo ship near Oman was hit by a projectile, raising fresh concerns about Strait of Hormuz safety even as traffic had been reopening. Gas Prices Outlook: With crude easing, forecasters say U.S. gasoline should keep sliding through 2026, but warn any breakdown in the Iran talks could quickly reverse gains. OPEC Tensions: Iraq warned it could leave OPEC if its quota increase is rejected, a move that could add uncertainty to global supply. Asia Supply Signals: China’s state refiners are reportedly considering resuming Iran oil purchases, though demand and alternative supplies may limit how much they buy. Energy Affordability: Alberta is rolling out a $100 rebate starting July 1, while Michigan utilities and federal programs are also targeting bill relief. EV Battery Reuse: Moment Energy opened a B.C. megafactory to repurpose retired EV batteries into stationary storage, aiming to support growing power demand. Philippines Energy Reform: The U.S. MCC approved a grant program to modernize Philippine energy governance and improve reliability.

Oil markets: Brent and WTI are sliding back toward pre-Iran-war levels as more tankers and LNG carriers clear the Strait of Hormuz after a US-Iran interim accord and a 60-day negotiation window, with officials saying at least 20 million barrels have exited in 24 hours and mines/route safety still mean a gradual “return to normal.” Energy security & geopolitics: Iran and the US keep trading warnings over shipping routes, while the UN maritime agency coordinates safe passage as tensions remain. Nuclear debate: In the Philippines, a lawmaker rejects calls to restart the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant, citing safety and cost concerns, and points to data centers instead. Nuclear expansion in Asia: India’s Adani Group announces a push into nuclear power targeting 10 GW by 2035 via a new venture, as the country aims to scale nuclear capacity. Grid & power buildout: Texas approves loans for two new West Texas gas units adding 860 MW, as data-center demand grows. Renewables & storage: LONGi and Sungrow highlight new European storage offerings at Intersolar Europe, while Suzlon wins a 400 MW wind EPC contract for Tata Power Renewable Energy. Local clean energy: Zimbabwe’s minister commissions a 120 kW solar mini-grid in Beitbridge, and rural Minnesota hosts a forum on community solar savings. LNG cooperation: Vietnam’s Petrovietnam meets Nebula Energy to explore LNG infrastructure, storage, AI, and digital transformation.

Oil Markets: Oil keeps sliding as more tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz after a US-Iran interim deal. Brent is down to about $74/bbl and WTI near $70, with traders watching for any OPEC response and supply rebuild. Policy & Prices: US President Trump orders the DOJ to investigate “gouging” by oil companies after gasoline prices didn’t fall as fast as crude, while experts note refineries and local taxes can slow pass-through. Geopolitics: Iran reports exporting 36 million barrels in five days as sanctions relief and shipping normalization progress. Energy Storage (US): Canadian Solar’s e-STORAGE will supply a 75 MW / 381 MWh battery system to Apex Clean Energy in Michigan, targeting mid-2027 operations. Nuclear (US/Politics): Oppenheimer’s grandson backs California’s nuclear energy bill, adding to renewed political momentum for nuclear. Grid & Regulation (US): Colorado regulators approve nearly $2m in penalties over oil-and-gas data falsification. Clean Energy Access (Global): A new SDG 7 report warns the world is far off universal electricity and clean cooking access by 2030. Safety (India): An ammonia leak in Tamil Nadu’s Tiruvallur raises deaths to 10, with 68 still hospitalized.